Rain to snow Monday night, accumulation possible
Today has been nice and warm, but big changes are on the way.
This evening temps will decrease slowly, much of the evening will be in the 50s. Lows will only drop into the low to mid-40s with clouds increasing ahead of our next system.
We are continue to closely monitor the potential for our first measurable snowfall. Our thoughts have been pretty consistent with the last few data runs.
Monday looks dry for the first part of the day. Daytime highs should get into the mid to upper 50s, before the arctic air from the cold front comes rushing in overnight. I think rain starts Monday evening, around dinnertime. I think the transition over to a wintry mix or snow happens near or after midnight. This will depend on how fast temps fall, but it continues to look very likely.
By Tuesday morning, temps will be in the low to mid-20s, which means any moisture still around at that point will definitely be snow. Remember though snowbirds, the ground will be coming off of 2 decently warm days, so it will be hard for anything to stick at first. If by any chance you have glanced at data, totals will likely not add up to what the data shows, but less. I think snowfall ends mid morning Tuesday, with lingering flurries possible.
As far as snow totals go, trends are coming together slowly but surely. To give you an overall thought on totals, they will be higher towards the southeast, and lower towards the northwest. Right now, we do not think anywhere will see much more than 2 inches of accumulation. The only place that will happen is the high elevations. Totals range from that, to a light coating.
Keep in mind too, there is going to be frigid air behind that front. I want to emphasize this! Daytime highs on Tuesday will likely stay below freezing and drop into the mid teens overnight. Wednesday doesn't look much warmer. Highs look to get above freezing, but just barely. Keep this in mind, as this could cause a flash freeze with the rapidly falling temps.
After we are done dealing with this system, the colder air sticks around with highs in the 30s and 40s for the rest of the week. We should stay sunny and dry through the weekend as well.